Africa: Military oppression sows seeds of violence in Egypt - Emad Mekay

The bloody coup d’etat has claimed the country’s newly-elected government and the lives of hundreds, putting democracy and the rule law in a precarious position.

EMAD MEKAY

Gruesome social media images that fuelled the global jihadist surge into Syria 18 months ago are back.  This time, however, they are coming from Egypt. Pictures on Facebook and Twitter show rows of bodies wrapped in white burial sheets lying in morgues, hospitals and even mosque hallways, others show charred bodies with victims’ heads bloodied by sniper shots. Most of the posts urge one thing: justice.

This is Egypt less than three months after a violent military coup d’état that removed the country’s first elected government, claimed the lives of hundreds of people and sent thousands of anti-coup activists, mostly Islamists, behind bars.

After the Arab Spring, radical groups such as Jihad and the Gamaa Islamiya, which once took up arms against the Mubarak regime, quickly snatched the opening long denied to them

One of the greatest, but mostly unsung, achievements of the Arab Spring – the embrace of democracy by previously militant armed groups – is now teetering on the verge of collapse. Al-Qaeda’s ideology of violence as the only means of change has now received a new lease of life.

After former-President Hosni Mubarak’s ousting in February 2011, Facebook and Twitter posts eulogised the advent of democracy and the dawn of rule of law. Now these are lamenting the acquittal of almost all members of his regime, including police officers who shot and killed protestors.

Hopes of a repatriation of funds by Mubarak’s cronies have virtually been dashed, while business tycoons who benefited from Mubarak regime’s corruption and patronage roam Egypt free again. The vicious secret police notorious for human rights abuses are now back with a vengeance, rounding people up in much-dreaded dawn raids that Egypt hoped were gone for good.

After the Arab Spring, radical groups such as Jihad and the Gamaa Islamiya, which once took up arms against the Mubarak regime, quickly snatched the opening long denied to them. They rushed to give media interviews, build political parties and contest elections. Many acknowledged that the Muslim Brotherhood model of gradual non-violent change was now the way to go. 

Rubbing shoulders with society clearly helped militant groups on their path to moderation. Members of the Gamaa Islamiya launched a million-man march in Cairo in February titled ‘No to Violence’, while Gamaa Islamiya leader Tarek al-Zumor appeared on a children’s talk show to teach youngsters how to be good citizens. Meanwhile, his older cousin Abboud al-Zumor – released after 30 years in prison for his role in masterminding the 1981 assassination of former President Anwar Sadat – wrote a newspaper column, in which he routinely opined about forgiveness and re-building the nation.

The coup has not only upset democracy, but threatened to roll back these profound changes. Amnesty International estimates that at least 1,089 people were killed in just four days between 14 and 18 August, during the military operation to disperse anti-coup protestors at Rabaa al-Adawiya square and al-Nahda square in Cairo. Human Rights Watch called the carnage the largest mass killing event in Egypt’s modern history.

The military crackdown is still raging and the total death toll is rising by the day. Check points manned by heavily-armed police clog Cairo’s streets in scenes not witnessed since the brutal era of former Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser in the 1960s. Rallies of protestors have been repeatedly attacked with live ammunition, and prisons are filling up fast. Morsi has so far been held incommunicado at an unknown location for nearly three months, facing allegations of espionage for Hamas.

Social media posts indicate that the war on the Islamists may push them to desperation and ‘self-defence’. ‘By God, our self-control now is not triggered by fear or intimidation. It’s out of concern for the value of human blood and for the safety of our country,’ said a post on an Islamist Facebook page. ‘If we are pushed too hard and our back is pressed against the wall, we’ll have to defend ourselves.’

The largest Islamist group remains the Brotherhood, which asserts that it will not be lured into taking up arms. However, its leaders may be losing the support of younger members. In private talks, members have criticised the group for failing to respond to verbal and physical attacks, even when Morsi was in power. This, they believe, enticed the coup leaders to work behind the scenes, confident that their plans would go undetected.

If the young decide to take up arms, it could happen on a massive scale. Senior Brotherhood leader Salah Sultan estimates active membership at between 800,000 to one million. Indeed, last time the Brotherhood endured a similar crackdown under Nasser in the 1960s, some sympathisers renounced the group’s peacenik line and splintered off to create their own jihadist factions.

The coup has not only upset democracy, but threatened to roll back these profound changes

Currently, Egyptian security forces are emboldened to continue with their clampdown. They have the backing from rich ruling families in neighbouring Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Internationally, they have political cover from Israel and the United States. They are also spooked by the spectre of the hangman in case the coup eventually fails: the military overthrow of government is punishable by death under all of Egypt’s different constitutions.

Like the 2011 Arab protests that happened slowly over social media while Western powers gave little attention, calls for the return to armed resistance are currently just trickling quietly on Facebook and Twitter. But if, or when, it happens, the return to violence will be another global security storm nurtured by military and police brutality, desperation and an overwhelming sense of lack of justice. 

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Emad Mekay is founder of the America in Arabic News Agency. A journalism fellow at the Investigative Reporting Program at Berkeley, US, he has 15 years’ experience reporting on the Middle East, Egypt, Islamic movements and the Arab Spring. He can be contacted at emad_mekay@yahoo.com.