Venezuelans were abruptly awoken in the early hours of 3 January to the sight and sound of explosions lighting up the skyline of the capital, Caracas. Within hours, US President Donald Trump confirmed that US forces had carried out air strikes on Caracas and seized Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores.

Despite these dramatic events, the air assault and capture didn’t come out of nowhere. For months Venezuela has witnessed an escalation of threats from the US military, including a major build-up of forces and a series of lethal strikes on alleged drug-smuggling boats.

Fernando Peláez-Pier, former IBA president and CEO of LexLatin, who lived and practised in Caracas for decades, says the tension was palpable. ‘Ever since Trump sent the war fleet to the Caribbean and they were destroying boats supposedly carrying drugs and seizing tankers transporting oil, we were certain it was going to happen, but we didn’t know when,’ he says. ‘During those weeks it was like living through Chronicle of a death foretold.’

Two days after Maduro’s arrest, then-Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, a long-standing Maduro supporter, was sworn in as Interim President after President Trump said María Corina Machado didn’t have sufficient support within Venezuela to run the country. President Trump declared that the US would ‘run’ Venezuela until ‘a safe, proper and judicious transition’ could take place.

As negotiations between the different political factions continue in Venezuela, it’s unclear how long a transition will take or when free and fair elections might be held. Rodríguez says the interim government has already released a number of prisoners, but over 700 political prisoners remain detained as of 19 January, according to Venezuelan human rights organisation Foro Penal. At the end of January, the interim government announced a general amnesty law that could lead to the release of hundreds of prisoners, as well as the closing of the El Helicoide prison in Caracas, which has been linked to allegations of human rights abuses.

In a statement released on 3 January, the UN’s Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Venezuela called for focus to be maintained ‘on the grave human rights violations and crimes against humanity’ committed under the Maduro regime against the Venezuelan people. The UN Mission has documented violations including extrajudicial killings, arbitrary detention, enforced disappearances and the use of torture to suppress dissent. Maduro’s government has historically rejected the UN Mission’s reports.

Verónica Hinestroza, a former senior programme lawyer working on Latin America at the IBA’s Human Rights Institute, says hopes of a democratic transition are a long way off. ‘Venezuela is not undergoing a regime change,’ she says. ‘The authorities across the three branches of power – executive, legislative, and judicial – whose independence and accountability were undermined and ultimately erased during the Chávez and Maduro administrations, remain in their positions.’

Maduro has already appeared in court in New York. The US indictment accuses him of leading ‘a corrupt, illegitimate government that, for decades, has leveraged government power to protect and promote illegal activity, including drug trafficking.’ He has pleaded not guilty.

However, Hinestroza says the trial will bring no justice for Venezuelans that have suffered at the hands of his regime. ‘Maduro is not being tried for the human rights violations committed under his command,’ she says. ‘Furthermore, there is no indication that other officials identified by the UN Mission as responsible for these violations will be investigated, especially not without a renewal of the authorities in charge of the administration of justice.’

On 15 January, Machado, a former political prisoner now living in exile, shocked the world when she travelled to the White House and presented President Trump with the Nobel Peace Prize, which she was awarded in 2025 ‘for her efforts to advance democracy in Venezuela’.

Peláez-Pier says this strategic move signals that Machado is priming herself to re-enter Venezuela’s political fray at the opportune moment. ‘María Corina needed to negotiate with Trump her role as opposition leader to secure her return to Venezuela and lead the opposition freely and not from underground,’ he says. ‘To achieve this, she needs Trump’s protection to continue working on the liberation of all the political prisoners and for a free election process. She needs people on the streets. And most importantly, Delcy and her collaborators must understand and accept her role and the role of the opposition. They must continue their movement to lead Venezuela to free elections during the interim administration.’

President Trump has urged US oil companies to invest $100bn in Venezuela’s largely untapped oil reserves. However, during a meeting with US oil executives, ExxonMobil’s CEO said the country was ‘uninvestable’ unless it amends its existing legal framework, which severely limits the involvement of international entities in the oil sector and taxes them heavily.

Chevron is currently the only US company licensed to operate in Venezuela. Both ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips exited Venezuela in 2007 after the nationalisation of the country’s oil industry. They are together still owed an estimated $12-13bn in expropriations.

Peláez-Pier believes President Trump has underestimated the complexity of the legal landscape and says investors want greater certainty and guarantees. ‘We cannot forget that Exxon and ConocoPhillips were expropriated and even though they had a favourable decision at arbitration, the indemnity has not yet been paid,’ he says.

Venezuela’s National Assembly has approved reforms to the country’s hydrocarbons law. These are expected to open up the oil sector to privatisation and encourage foreign investment.

Hinestroza believes that both the international community and Venezuela’s Latin American neighbours have a critical role to play – at a time of instability – in ensuring the country’s resources are used only with the informed consent of its people and for their benefit. ‘Such resources are essential for rebuilding infrastructure, providing basic services and creating jobs that encourage a dignified return for the migrant population and provide equally dignified opportunities for those who, for whatever reason, remained,’ she says.

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