NATO moves to counter hybrid threats after airspace violations
Recent incursions into European airspace have led to concerns about escalating Russian aggression on the EU’s borders, as Western fears grow that the Kremlin is testing NATO’s red lines.
In September, in two separate incidents Russian drones were sighted entering the airspace of Poland and Romania – both NATO members. A few days later, the government of Estonia, also a NATO member, reported that three Russian fighter jets had entered its airspace ‘without permission’. Russia denies entering the airspace of the latter two countries, while rejecting claims that the drone incursion into Poland was deliberate.
While Romania’s defence ministry said the drone later disappeared from its airspace, the other violations were enough for Poland and Estonia to invoke Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which allows NATO members to convene with the alliance’s main decision-making body, the North Atlantic Council. Article 4 was last invoked by eight NATO members in early 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Later in September, two airports in Denmark closed following sightings of unidentified drones. The Danish authorities later said there was no evidence to link Moscow to the incident. In early October at least 17 flights were grounded in Munich because of drone sightings, just days after EU leaders gathered in Copenhagen to discuss European defence and support for Ukraine. Referring to the drones, the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz suggested that a ‘significant portion of it is probably controlled from Russia’ although he noted the matter was being investigated. The Kremlin denies involvement.
Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed allegations that the Kremlin plans to attack NATO as ‘nonsense’ during a speech in Sochi on 2 October, but also said Moscow was ‘closely monitoring the escalating militarisation of Europe.’
While violations of European airspace have been commonplace for years, the recent incursions are telling, says Alexander Gilder, Associate Professor of International Law and Security at the University of Reading. ‘Russia is showing that it has the resources to continue, and even escalate, destabilising hybrid attacks even amidst a major conflict with Ukraine,’ he says. ‘Russia predicts declining US support for European security and is seeking to destabilise and divide the European allies – particularly those with major political changes afoot and those that are feeling the impact of the war in Ukraine, such as Poland.’
NATO member states have increased their investment in defence, partly in response to what they perceive as the rising security threat posed by Russia. In June, member states agreed to raise the alliance’s defence spending target from two per cent to five per cent by 2035.
In July, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland withdrew from the Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Convention. Lithuania also formally withdrew from the Convention on Cluster Munitions. Gilder says such moves reflect a growing unease on the part of European allies that ‘they may need to use such weapons to defend their territory were Russia to mount an invasion.’
It would clearly be dangerous to escalate tensions with a sudden rush of massive military force, which is probably what NATO is so nervous about
Kirsty Sutherland
Co-Chair, IBA War Crimes Committee
However, Kirsty Sutherland, Co-Chair of the IBA War Crimes Committee, is concerned that the response by the European allies to date has been too fragmented. ‘There’s a danger if countries are only acting in their self-interest and only angry when it’s their own airspace or infrastructure that is attacked – that’s not what NATO is about,’ she says.
Sutherland, who specialises in international criminal and military law at 9BR Chambers in London, says NATO must take this opportunity to assert ‘red lines early’ to ease tensions and prevent escalation. NATO, she says, needs to manage a ‘very fine balancing act’ in order to ‘push Russia to a less belligerent course of behaviour. It has to show some muscle before Putin succeeds in eroding NATO’s alliance or its unity and effectiveness.’
NATO has said it’ll boost its military presence along the EU’s eastern flank and bolster its ‘Baltic Sentry’ mission, which was launched in January to address growing threats to critical undersea infrastructure. A recent report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies identified that Russian sabotage operations on Europe’s critical infrastructure almost quadrupled between 2023 and 2024.
NATO’s pledge in late September to deploy, in accordance with international law, ‘all necessary military and non-military tools’ to defend itself points to the alliance’s increasingly robust response to Russia’s hybrid warfare, says Gilder. ‘[While] not a major shift, NATO is showing Russia it can coordinate responses and mobilise resources,’ he says. However, he stresses that the alliance still has to prove to member states that it can be ‘effective’ in the face of increasingly sophisticated and persistent attacks.
The recent series of airspace incursions has also prompted comparisons with an incident in 2015 when Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet after it penetrated the NATO member state’s airspace.
The incident, which took place in the context of the Syrian conflict, highlighted the strength of the country’s resolve, says Sutherland. ‘What’s interesting is Turkey had been quite explicitly demonstrating and committing to a robust approach to any incursions in its airspace, so it couldn’t be said that the Russians weren’t warned,’ she says. ‘There’s possibly a really important lesson there for NATO: it would clearly be dangerous to escalate tensions with a sudden rush of massive military force, which is probably what NATO is so nervous about.’
Some analysts have noted the timing of the latest incursions amidst dwindling US support for NATO. In September, during his speech at the UN General Assembly in New York, US President Donald Trump criticised NATO’s European allies for continuing to buy oil and gas from Moscow ‘while they’re fighting Russia.’ However, he later said that NATO members should shoot down Russian planes that breach their airspace.
As ongoing geopolitical tensions stymie action at the UN Security Council, Sutherland says NATO’s role in peacekeeping has becoming increasingly paramount. ‘Impunity is the real danger now,’ she says. ‘One of the major concerns is the licence that’s being given [to rogue states] by the failure to respond and the failure to hold anyone accountable for these violations of international law,’ she says. ‘They’re becoming the norm and I think we’re at a very dangerous point.’
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