President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva during his re-election speech on 25 October 2026 in São Paulo, Brazil. Ricardo Stuckert/Lula Oficial via Flickr

On 25 October, Brazil’s incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defeated Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a run-off election. The result comes four years after Lula’s victory over his opponent’s father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who was later sentenced to 27 years in prison for his role in plotting a military coup against the government.

In September 2025, Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court found Bolsonaro Snr and seven of his allies guilty on multiple counts of conspiring to overthrow the government after losing the 2022 election to Lula. The conspiracy ultimately failed to win the backing of Brazil’s military and Lula was sworn in as President on 1 January 2023. Speaking at the time, Carlos Roberto Siqueira Castro, senior partner at Siqueira Castro in Rio de Janeiro, said the convictions ‘convey the public message that there will be no impunity for anyone who conspires and attempts to abolish the democratic regime in Brazil.’

Bolsonaro Jnr had suggested he would seek amnesty for his father if he became president, while his allies reportedly hoped to impeach Alexandre de Moraes, the Supreme Court justice who presided over the trial of Jair Bolsonaro. Flávio Bolsonaro had also said he would ‘reform’ Brazil’s Constitution with the aim of ‘redemocratising’ the country.

Both Lula and Bolsonaro Jnr have faced corruption allegations. Lula was convicted in 2017 over allegations linked to the ‘Car Wash’ corruption scandal. However, Lula’s corruption convictions were annulled in 2021 by Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court, which ruled that the judge who presided over the former president’s investigation had not been impartial, allowing him to stand again for election.

Flávio Bolsonaro has faced corruption allegations, including of money laundering. He denies any wrongdoing. A few days before the run-off election, Lula challenged Bolsonaro Jnr during a live televised debate to disclose his financial records. Both candidates later said they would release certain banking and tax documents, as well as telephone records.

On 21 October, UN experts warned that reports of restrictions on legitimate political expression on Meta platforms during the election campaign had raised concerns. The UN said that international election observers had noticed temporary interruptions relating to one candidate’s campaign account, for instance.

Meta directed Global Insight to a statement in which it highlights ‘recent technical incidents that affected campaigns across the political spectrum’ during the Brazilian election, while denying allegations that the company favours or interferes on behalf of any candidate or group. It says it ‘will continue to enforce its rules, comply with Brazilian electoral law, fix mistakes when they occur and provide a level playing field for everyone who uses our services.’ On 20 October, the company’s Oversight Board issued a statement regarding election integrity efforts relating to the Brazilian campaign and other events, highlighting that Meta ‘must do more to ensure that its enforcement practices during elections are transparent and consistent and that political speech is protected rather than stifled.’

Ali El Hage Filho, an officer of the IBA Oil & Gas Law Committee based in Rio de Janeiro, says voters faced a stark choice in the election between continuity and change. ‘President Lula offers continuity’ and will look to ‘keep the current fiscal rules, rely on large state-led infrastructure programmes, and use Petrobras, the state-controlled oil company, as a tool for development,’ he says. In contrast, Bolsonaro Jnr proposed ‘a new fiscal rule centred on a slimmer government with fewer ministries, a return to privatisations and infrastructure investments led by the private sector,’ says El Hago Filho, a partner at Veirano Advogados.

Lula’s win is set to be significant for the environment. Deforestation of the Amazon rainforest, for example – which Lula has sought to address through policymaking – has now fallen 71 per cent below its 2022 level. In 2025, the Brazilian government also launched the Tropical Forest Forever Facility conservation initiative.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s critical mineral sector has recently received particular attention. Brazil is home to vast niobium, graphite, rare earth and nickel reserves. Countries such as the US are increasingly looking to tap Brazil’s mineral wealth to help reduce their dependence on Chinese rare earths.

In September, Lula signed into law a new legal framework for critical and strategic minerals. The legislation has created an interministerial council with powers to approve or veto foreign investment in strategic minerals projects, as well as offering tax credits to companies that process minerals inside Brazil instead of exporting them raw. Monica de Bolle, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, says Lula’s campaign was ‘premised on protecting Brazilian economic sovereignty.’ Meanwhile, Bolsonaro Jnr had indicated support for opening the mining sector up to foreign investment.

Renê Medrado, a Member of the IBA International Trade and Customs Law Committee Advisory Board based in São Paulo, says the election result will influence Brazil’s relationship with Argentina, its main Latin American trading partner, and the future dynamic of the Mercosur trade bloc. Had Bolsonaro Jnr won, there may have been ‘an alignment between Brazil and Argentina’ and more cooperation, says Medrado, a partner at Pinheiro Neto Advogados.