US-Ukraine minerals deal indicates importance of rare earths

Chloé Farand Thursday 27 March 2025

The deal being finalised between the US and Ukraine has placed a spotlight on a suddenly much-sought after group of minerals – rare earth elements. This set of 17 nearly indistinguishable soft metals are essential to many modern digital technologies, such as advanced defence equipment as well as the magnets used in electric vehicle motors and wind turbines – all at the forefront of the global agenda.

Despite their name, rare earth elements are in fact relatively abundant. But they rarely exist in their pure form and are often found with other minerals, making extraction difficult. Mining and processing them requires vast amounts of toxic chemicals, which is costly and poses environmental risks.

China – by far the world’s largest producer – boasts the most sizeable known reserves, with Australia, Brazil and India also holding significant deposits, according to the US Geological Survey’s latest assessment.

Propelled by the expansion of clean energy technologies, demand for rare earths is surging. Adamas Intelligence, a research company providing information on supply chains for critical minerals, forecasts the value of global consumption of the four rare earth elements used to make magnets – neodymium, dysprosium, terbium and samarium – to rise five-fold by 2030 and predicts significant growth after that. A global hike in defence spending could also drive consumption.

In this context, securing supplies of rare earths has become a key issue for national security and geostrategic interests. This is compounded by the concentration of the supply chain in China, which mines around 60 per cent of rare earths globally, far ahead of other relatively large producers such as Australia, Myanmar and the US. China also refines about 90 per cent of global supplies – a quasi-monopoly.

To maintain its market dominance, Beijing has banned the export of rare earth processing, extraction and separation technology. By 2030, more than three-quarters of processed rare earths are still expected to originate from China, according to the International Energy Agency. China sees this dominance as ‘one of the top issues of national security and an important “card in the sleeve” when it comes to trade wars, especially with the US,’ says Patrick Schröder, a senior research fellow at the Environment and Society Centre at think-tank Chatham House. He adds that Beijing effectively controls the supply levels of rare earths and can create artificial scarcity and oversupply, affecting prices and making new mining projects overseas unviable.

The Chinese have cornered the market on rare earths. It’s become evident that if Western countries don’t start securing a supply of them, they’re going to be beholden to China

Darrell Podowski
Co-Chair, IBA Mining Law Committee

In response, the West has been attempting to build out alternative supply chains to reduce its near complete reliance on China. ‘The Chinese have cornered the market on rare earths. It’s become evident that if Western countries don’t start securing a supply of them, they’re going to be beholden to China,’ says Darrell Podowski, Co-Chair of the IBA Mining Law Committee. ‘The US should have been focused on it years ago. It takes seven to ten years to get a mine going. It’s a slow burn.’

Since returning to the White House, US President Donald Trump has been bullish about acquiring supplies from other countries, making access to Ukraine’s rare earths a condition of ongoing US support to the embattled nation in its war with Russia.

Details of a mooted minerals deal are yet to be fully agreed, but it’s expected to allow US access to Ukraine’s minerals and ensure part of the profits from future resource developments are invested in the country’s recovery.

But the amount and value of Ukraine’s rare earths reserves are uncertain and those that exist could be out of reach. The last geological mapping dates back to Soviet-era exploration half a century ago. Of four mapped rare earths deposits, all but one are located close to or in areas under Russian control, according to Erik Jonsson, senior geologist at the Geological Survey of Sweden.

Analysts agree it’s unclear if Ukraine’s rare earths are commercially viable to mine, while exploration would require huge investments from private companies. For Podowski, who’s also a partner in the Securities and Mining Groups at Cassels in Vancouver, Ukraine’s minerals are ‘secondary’ to the US objective of securing peace. Noting that ‘Ukraine has never been a mining jurisdiction,’ he says that when President Trump talks about critical minerals, it’s ‘sort of a side interest.’

Others have seen in the President’s suggestions that he will acquire Greenland and Canada, both of which have considerable reserves of rare earths and other minerals, as another attempt to shore up US supplies.

But Greenland’s 1.5 million metric tons of rare earths ‘are underneath a very thick cap of ice, which makes them uneconomical [to mine]’ and would come at great environmental cost, says Carlos Vilhena, Secretary of the IBA Energy, Environment, Natural Resources and Infrastructure Law Section (SEERIL). US interest could be part of efforts to prevent China from accessing the resources through Russia, putting a wedge between the two countries as part of a broader geopolitical play, adds Vilhena.

Meanwhile, under its Critical Raw Materials Act, the EU is relying on building a high degree of self-sufficiency and partnerships with resource-rich countries to help break its dependence on China. The legislation identifies reusing and recycling magnets as a priority for increasing rare earths supplies. It’s a tall order given that only around one per cent of rare earths are currently recycled from old products.

Schröder says there are many challenges to creating a circular economy at scale for rare earths metals, but it’s ‘essential’ to build European supplies and reduce the environmental and social impacts from mining.

Image credit: Anastasiia/adobestock.com

Toronto to host Annual Conference 2025

The IBA’s flagship event, the Annual Conference, will take place this year at the Metro Toronto Convention Centre, Toronto, Canada, from 2–7 November.

The world’s foremost event for international legal professionals, the Conference will bring together thousands of people from more than 130 jurisdictions to discuss the latest developments across all areas of law and make connections. Over the week, hundreds of working sessions and social functions will take place, enabling the valuable exchange of information and abundant networking opportunities.

As in previous years, leading international figures will be in attendance to participate in events such as the Opening Ceremony, the ‘Conversation with’ interview sessions and the Rule of Law Symposium.

Further details on the specifics of the working sessions, social functions and keynote speakers will be released in the coming months.

The Annual Conference will once again be the setting for the awards ceremony to celebrate the achievements of exceptional lawyers and to hear their stories. The IBA presents three awards at this ceremony for contributions to human rights, pro bono work and to honour an outstanding young lawyer. More details here.

Toronto is an excellent location for this event. This dynamic metropolis – the largest city in Canada – is known as one of the most cosmopolitan, multicultural cities in the world. The city is a leader in business, finance, technology, entertainment and culture.

Toronto is home to a diverse range of businesses across various industries. The Financial District is the centre of Canada's financial industry containing the Toronto Stock Exchange, which is the largest in Canada and tenth largest in the world.

Take advantage of the early bird rate before 18 July – book here.

Find out about sponsorship opportunities here.

2025 Awards now open for nominations

The IBA is now receiving nominations for its annual awards which include the IBA Pro Bono Award and the IBA Outstanding Young Lawyer Award. The awards, sponsored by LexisNexis, will be presented to the winners at a dedicated ceremony during this year’s IBA Annual Conference, taking place from 2–7 November 2025 at the Metro Toronto Convention Centre in Toronto, Canada.

The Pro Bono Award is presented by the IBA Pro Bono Committee and aims to honour a lawyer who has shown outstanding commitment to pro bono work as part of their legal career.

The Outstanding Young Lawyer Award is presented by the IBA Young Lawyers’ Committee to a young lawyer who has shown not only excellence in their work and achievements in their career to date, but also a commitment to professional and ethical standards as well as a commitment to the larger community.

Find out more and apply for the awards here.

New report on international arbitration awards

A new report by an IBA Arbitration Committee Task Force provides an in-depth examination of the role and application of the res judicata principle in international arbitration.

The principle ensures that an arbitration award, or a judgment of a court that is no longer subject to appeal, is binding and final. The report highlights significant inconsistencies in current practices, including conflicts in choice-of-law approaches, divergent interpretations of the principle’s scope and the unsuitability of domestic legal standards for addressing the complexities of arbitration.

To resolve these challenges, the report advocates for the development of an autonomous standard specifically designed to meet the unique needs of international arbitration, fostering greater consistency, predictability and efficiency in resolving disputes.

The Task Force is chaired by Dietmar Prager, Senior Vice Chair of the Arbitration Committee, and Patricia Saiz, Vice Chair of the Arbitration Committee.

Find out more and read the report here.

IBA launches next phase of 50:50 by 2030 gender equality project

Phase two of the IBA’s global project addressing the lack of gender parity at senior levels across the law launched shortly before International Women’s Day on 8 March. A worldwide survey is the primary component of Phase two of the 50:50 by 2030 – A Longitudinal Study into Gender Disparity in Law project. Phase one was conducted on a country-by-country basis to understand gender disparity across key sectors – with one survey per entity across the four key sectors of private practice, in-house counsel, the public sector and the judiciary.

Through survey responses, the aim is to understand the experiences of individual women practitioners, including: obstacles to practice; reasons for thinking about leaving or having left the field; opinions on diversity initiatives and their efficacy; the effects of menopause; and the impact of caring responsibilities on women’s careers.

As part of the Phase two launch, a free webinar titled ‘Empowering progress: launch of the 50:50 by 2030 project Phase two’ was held on 7 March. It was hosted by the IBA Legal Policy & Research Unit (LPRU) and supported by the IBA Women Lawyers’ Committee and the IBA Diversity and Inclusion Council. Moderated by Sara Carnegie, IBA Director of Legal Projects, the panel explored the experiences of women in the law and asked whether initiatives in place to recruit and retain women are working and what more needs to be done.

Additionally, in celebration of International Women’s Day, the LPRU has launched the ‘Inspirational Legal Women’ podcast series, which features conversations with IBA members sharing their thoughts and experiences about what it means to be a woman in the legal profession. Three episodes have now been published, featuring discussions with Deborah Enix-Ross, Carola van den Bruinhorst and Faiza Alleg Dolivet.

Learn more about the 50:50 by 2030 project here and listen to the Inspirational Legal Women podcast series here.

ESG disclosure regime in capital market transactions

The IBA Securities and Capital Markets Committee has published a report assessing how different jurisdictions regulate environmental, social and governance disclosures in capital market transactions.

The report is presented as responses to survey questions and covers more than 35 jurisdictions.

The responses to the survey showed several takeaways, such as that ESG disclosures are mandatorily required to be made in most of the jurisdictions reviewed, and that most countries covered by the survey do not (yet) have a classification system for environmentally sustainable activities based on certain basic minimum standards that are objectively ascertainable and transparently reportable.

Overall, the survey again provides valuable insights into the growing importance of ESG considerations in capital market transactions around the globe. The results underscore the need for companies to take a more comprehensive approach to ESG in order to build more sustainable and resilient businesses that are better equipped to meet the challenges of the future. It also highlights the need for policymakers to work towards developing more standardised and clearer ESG disclosure frameworks, which will enable better comparability and understanding of ESG risks and opportunities for investors and other stakeholders alike.

Read the survey here.

Academy for Leaders 2025: applications now open

The IBA Law Firm Management Committee has created a cutting edge four-day intensive course specially designed for law firm leaders by law firm leaders. The programme examines legal services and explains what is changing, the aspects that will stay the same and the key success factors for ensuring continued growth and success in the years ahead. Critically, it will look at this entirely practically – in terms of what law firms should do – and from a truly global perspective.

Attending the event will equip all leaders with the latest techniques to help firms grow; an understanding of how to be an effective and successful leader in a new, fast-changing environment; how to leverage use of knowledge, technology and innovation to improve client relationships and performance; and the best methods to grow internationally, among other things.

Find out more and apply for the event here.

Insurance: soaring premiums and major losses after wildfires show devastating impact of climate crisis

Joanne Harris

Wildfire, California 2022. Brian Gailey/AdobeStock.com

Early data showed that insurance companies paid out over $4bn for losses from the two largest wildfires that devastated the Los Angeles area in January. The Association of British Insurers meanwhile says the industry lost a record £585m as a result of weather-related damage to homes and possessions in 2024, while an Insurance Council of Australia report on catastrophe resilience indicated a 73 per cent increase in claims in 2023/24 compared to the previous year.

Warren Percival, European Regional Forum Liaison Officer for the IBA Environment, Health and Safety Law Committee, says the data shows that losses for natural disasters worldwide have exceeded $100bn for five years running. ‘That to me feels like a very concrete answer that you should deal with climate change regardless of the asset class you’re involved in,’ he says.

Recent natural disasters have highlighted the breadth of the climate crisis. In addition to the wildfires in California, catastrophic storms have battered Europe. Australia has been hit by flooding, storms and wildfires. Heatwaves in Brazil have had a further impact on areas affected by historic floods in 2024.

‘The physical risks to property are higher than they’ve ever been. We’ve been through 1.5 degrees warming since pre-industrial times. We’ve just sailed by it. It’s picking up at pace and so too are the types of impacts we’re seeing,’ says Mark Siebentritt, Global Practice Lead for Climate at consultancy Edge Impact.

Much of the current discussion of climate and insurance centres on residential properties. In most countries, a residential mortgage is contingent on the homeowner also having property insurance. Rising insurance premiums can make owning a home unaffordable, even as the value of the home drops due to growing risk.

‘Insurance encourages people to stay in areas,’ says Michael Showalter, Membership Officer for the IBA Environment, Health and Safety Law Committee. ‘The trend in the US has been for people to move south into places that are going to be more exposed if you have increased temperatures. It’s going to be interesting to see what happens if people start pouring back north.’

Siebentritt says insurers are responding in several ways to the losses they’re facing, firstly by factoring climate risk into the underwriting process. ‘Some people or businesses will pay more or choose not to have insurance. When the next fire comes along they’re exposed and may never recover,’ he explains.

While insurers are pulling out of some markets, they’re also being creative about looking at different ways of investing their money and at new products. This includes moving investments into areas such as renewables, says Siebentritt.

Meanwhile a product that’s growing in use is parametric insurance, which covers the probability of an event – such as flooding – happening. The insurer pays out when the event meets a pre-determined parameter. For businesses in particular, this type of product allows the insured party to buy insurance in line with their risk tolerance levels and their ability to cover losses from their own funds.

It’s a whole system view that you’ve got to have in terms of the impact of climate on individuals and businesses, and how you become more resilient

Warren Percival
European Regional Forum Liaison Officer, IBA Environment, Health and Safety Law Committee

Governments will probably also have to get more involved, especially where insurers don’t cover a particular market. Fernanda Stefanelo, Programme Officer on the IBA Environment, Health and Safety Law Committee, says the concept of social insurance is being discussed in Brazil. ‘The idea is for a region to have money to restart life because when you have a situation like floods or fires, people lose everything, and then the federal government will provide some money,’ she explains. However, there are issues with accountability and with the potential transfer of funds from one region to another.

‘The thing about climate change is that the earlier you deal with things and the earlier you’re willing to spend significant money on mitigation issues, you can mitigate long-term losses,’ says Showalter, who’s also a partner at ArentFox Schiff in Chicago. He highlights that the insurance industry was, for example, heavily involved in creating regulations requiring the use of seatbelts in cars. ‘They have a role here too,’ he adds, highlighting that the insurance industry can say ‘we’ll insure your house under conditions A, B and C.’

‘We’re going to move from the concept of the cost of construction to the cost of living and maintaining,’ says Siebentritt. ‘If we fully factor in the operating costs you can invest in resilience measures, which means that over the lifetime of the asset it becomes cheaper to operate. We’ve also seen insurers getting much more actively involved in [assessing how] they encourage that discussion.’

Percival, who’s also a director at RSK Group in Manchester, England, and Chair of the UK Environmental Law Association, says everyone in a particular value chain must take responsibility for dealing with the climate crisis as a business risk. ‘The more asset owners can deal with resilience perhaps the insurance market can meet them more in the middle,’ he says.

Stefanelo, who’s a partner at Demarest in São Paulo, adds that the same discussion is happening in Brazil. ‘Companies in general are more sophisticated in terms of understanding their losses not only in the present but also in the future,’ she says. ‘There are changes in general in the environment that may affect their business, for example depending on where their property is located. They’re being sophisticated in understanding the culpability and their losses.’

There’s agreement among environmental lawyers that addressing the future risk of climate disasters is key across all sectors, and that if rising insurance costs help prompt this discussion, that’s a positive. ‘It’s a whole system view that you’ve got to have in terms of the impact of climate on individuals and businesses, and how you become more resilient,’ says Percival. ‘It can almost feel too big [of] an issue to deal with, but if we do it in the right way as a whole system approach from each part of the sector, we can start thinking in a more holistic way about how to deal with these issues.’

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